In the past few years, several security-related developments in the world have affected Sweden’s security in a way that has not been seen for a long time.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East are also affecting the threat to Sweden and Swedish interests in various ways. The Swedish Security Service sees a concrete risk that the security situation will deteriorate further.

The Swedish Security Service needs to continuously adapt to changes that are taking place in the world. External and internal threats to Sweden overlap considerably, thus becoming intertwined and creating a threat that is difficult to assess.

“The threat from foreign powers and violent extremists is linked to conflicts in the world, where Sweden is used as an arena,” says Fredrik Hallström, Head of Operations, Swedish Security Service.

The Swedish Security Service assesses that Sweden needs to continue having the capability to adapt to a world that is increasingly marked by confrontation between superpowers. States such as Russia, China, and Iran are collaborating and trying to affect the rulebased world order. At the same time, vulnerabilities in Sweden could be exploited and challenged if the security situation deteriorates further.

“The security situation is serious, and there is a risk of further negative development. Conflicts could have a ripple effect, spreading faster and faster, and the effect could also reach Sweden as the number of conflicts in the world increases,” says Fredrik Hallström.

Sweden’s geographic location, sought-after natural resources, and an infrastructure that is shared with other countries could have an impact on securitythreatening activities carried out by foreign powers in Sweden.

“Sweden is part of the West and NATO, which contributes to increased security. However, the critical assets located in Sweden, which are important for us and our allies, also pique the interest of foreign powers, increasing their interest in obtaining intelligence. This could be a matter of procuring technology, making strategic acquisitions, or of pinpointing possible targets for sabotage. We have to be ready to act both fast and with due consideration,” says Fredrik Hallström.

To counter security-threatening activities that target Sweden, the Swedish Security Service collaborates with national and international partners and authorities and also has a continuous dialogue with the research and business communities.

“It is important that we do not only focus on the threats; we must also reduce the vulnerabilities we have in Sweden. This means protecting critical assets while also identifying and countering threat actors. This will make Sweden both more secure and more difficult to attack. In the past year, many societal actors have taken various security-enhancing measures, which helps to reduce the risk of attacks. Continuing these efforts with full vigour is a critical success factor,” says Fredrik Hallström.

Russia is the greatest threat

Russia remains as the dimensioning threat to Sweden. Russian security-threatening activities conducted against Sweden risk pose a threat to a number of critical assets with a bearing on national security, including those linked to Sweden’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty.

Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s willingness to take risks has increased as well as its acceptance of taking action that implies a risk to life and health. An important part of Russia’s security-threatening activities against the West are hybrid activities that Russia carries out in order to destabilise, mislead, create turmoil and shift focus.

“It is important not to jump to conclusions based on individual incidents. A spontaneous or impulsive reaction to an incident could very well be exactly what foreign powers hope for. In order to understand what is actually happening and who is behind an incident, we must have the capability to act fast, but not rashly. The importance of national and international collaboration to ensure reliable assessments after incidents cannot be overestimated,” says Fredrik Hallström.

When foreign powers increase their capability due to their regimes’ cooperation, this affects the threat to Sweden. The use of proxies to conduct attacks against targets in Sweden has also had a clear impact on the threat. Throughout the year, the Swedish Security Service has worked to counter various security threats in order to limit both foreign powers’ and violent extremists’ scope of action and their ability to act in Sweden.

“It is important that we take charge of the future and make it difficult for threat actors to operate in and against Sweden. Although there are several initiatives for new legislation that will help us take action against security threats, it is unfortunately difficult for us to take sufficiently impactful action against some aspects of such threats. Part of the legislation concerning our remit areas, such as access to encrypted information online, needs to be adapted, because the situation in the world and the threats have changed,” says Fredrik Hallström.

A multi-faceted threat

Terrorist groups use digital platforms and gaming environments to reach out to younger target groups. Violent rhetoric online is often designed to attract young individuals. Young people are radicalised and mobilised when rhetoric, which is often similar to that of violent computer games or action movies, videos, music and memes, is spread in places where young people tend to spend time. The Swedish Security Service handles cases concerning children who have not yet reached their teens.

“Often, young people are drawn to violence as an ideology. The process of radicalisation has also become increasingly rapid. In addition to the online problem, Active Clubs are a growing phenomenon within violent right-wing extremism in Europe, which mainly attract young people,” says Fredrik Hallström.

The Swedish Security Service also notes that, because of overlaps between violent extremism, anti-establishment movements and conspiracy theories, ideologically motivated violence against ideological opponents could eventually increase. An increased polarisation in Sweden could lead to an increased acceptance of threats, hate and violence, which could serve as a breeding ground for violent extremism.

“Strong antagonism between ideological opponents could lead to polarisation and, consequently, to a vulnerability that threat actors could take advantage of. We deem that there is a risk of violent extremism increasing if vulnerabilities in Sweden are exploited for the purpose of conducting security-threatening activities. Here, we also have to be vigilant of how international developments within violent right-wing extremism may affect the violent environments in Sweden,” says Fredrik Hallström.